Dear Editor:
The
recent report on the “Risk assessment on the epidemics of human
infection with a novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus” is very
interesting[1].
Liu et al. concluded that “it is highly unlikely that a pandemic of
human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus will happen in
Jiangsu Province in the near future[1].” This result is concordant with a previous report by Nishiura et al[2]. Indeed, as new cross species infection, the pandemic of the new H7N9 is widely discussed[3].
There are some concerns for the risk of H7N9 influenza. The present
report by Liu et al. is based on the present data. However, in real
life, the situation of viral infection is usually dynamic. The change in
virus, human and environment, the triad, should be considered. A recent
study noted that “under appropriate conditions human-to-human
transmission of the H7N9 virus may be possible[4].”
In addition, there are some new evidences indicating the change of
virus. A good example is the recent emerging oseltamivir-resistant
strain (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-11/tamiflu-resistance-gene-in-h7n9-bird-flu-spurs-drug-tests.html).
References
2. Nishiura
H, Mizumoto K, Ejima K. How to interpret the transmissibility of novel
influenza A(H7N9): an analysis of initial epidemiological data of human
cases from China. Theor Biol Med Model. 2013;10:30. [PMC free article] [PubMed]
3. Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Emergence of avian influenza A
(H7N9) virus causing severe human illness-China, February-April 2013. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2013;62:366–71. [PubMed]
4. Zhu
H, Wang D, Kelvin DJ, Li L, Zheng Z, Yoon SW. Infectivity,
transmission, and pathology of human H7N9 influenza in ferrets and pigs.
Science. 2013;341:183–6. [PubMed]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3721044/
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3721044/
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