Recombinomics Commentary 19:30
May 19, 2011
The week 19 Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) deaths for El Paso, Texas increased to 15, which raised the total for the past 6 weeks to 83. Thus, in the past 6 weeks, record levels were reported for weeks 14, 15, 18 and 19. The prior record number of deaths for week 19 was 7 in 1997, so the 2011 level more than doubled the record for the past 15 years. The P&I death rate for these six weeks was 12.73%, which is more than 1.5 times the national epidemic threshold for the period.
These record numbers of deaths come at the end of the flu season, which officially ends at week 20. The number of lab confirmed H1N1 cases in the US has been declining steadily, consistent with the seasonal nature of influenza. However, the high number of deaths in El Paso supports the emergence of a new H1N1 sub-clade, as seen across the border in Chihuahua, Mexico, which caused WHO to issue a 2011 pandemic alert.
Moreover, and increase in P&I deaths has also been recorded for US Region III, which includes Delaware, where Tamiflu resistant H1N1 is transmitting, raising concerns that a more virulent H1N1 is emerging at the end of the 2010/2011 flu season.
The dramatic increase in P&I deaths in El Paso over the past 6 weeks has not been addressed by health agencies.
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