Thursday, May 28, 2009

Australia-Swine flu explosion triggers doomsday plan

May 28, 2009 01:20pm

CONFIRMED swine flu infections in Australia are rising dramatically, with dozens of new cases emerging in a matter of hours, Health Minister Nicola Roxon has revealed.

"I can now confirm that the publicly confirmed cases in Australia has jumped to 103 cases. As you would know at this time yesterday there were 61 cases,'' Ms Roxon told reporters in Canberra.

"We do expect that that number might increase in the course of the day.

"We are working very hard to contain this."

The announcement came as authorities denied overreacting to swine flu, saying more than 10,000 people could die and Parliament House in Canberra may have to be shut down to prevent the country's top leadership from becoming infected.

Earlier this morning ACT Chief Health Officer Charles Guest hit back at suggestions Australia's reaction to the H1N1 virus had been exaggerated, warning up to 20 per cent of the population could be infected with swine flu.

"There is the possibility as we work into the seasonal influenza season that the swine flu seasonal influenza mix may become more virulent than now,'' Dr Guest said.

"So the reason we are working to delay the spread of infection is to reduce the chance that it will become more virulent.

"So it's not an over-reaction by the health authorities at this time, we understand of course that many people are very concerned.''

Dr Guest said swine flu could be two-to-three times more virulent than seasonal influenza, so there could be 6,000-10,000 deaths - "but that's only if we have the same number of cases'', he said.

"If 20 per cent of the population are infected with swine flu there would be many more deaths.''

There are 2,000-3,000 deaths from routine seasonal influenza each year.

"But what we're concerned about is here that there may be an attack rate in the whole population of 20 per cent,'' he said.

"That would lead to a lot more deaths.''

He continued to urge sick people to avoid going into crowded places.

But he said this weekend's sporting events in the ACT would, at this stage, go ahead.

If 20 per cent of the population is infected with swine flu, Dr Guest said that would "bring some major changes in this winter''.

He didn't rule out the possibility Parliament House could be shut down.

The Australian Government will place an order with CSL Ltd to secure supplies of the first batches of Human Swine Flu vaccine, which the vaccine manufacturer currently expects could be ready within a few months.

The Government has approved the purchase of any new vaccine developed by CSL to protect people against the H1N1 flu strain. Sufficient doses will be purchased for about 10 million people.

Medical experts estimate that, on their current assessment of the virus, this purchase would be sufficient to contain population level spread and protect those most at risk of complications should they contract the virus.

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